Avocado & the Guacpocalypse: Shortages, Price Hikes, & More

Why Are Avocados so Expensive?

Avocado prices unpredictably rise and fall with each year's crop, but prices overall have been rising for the last decade. Today, consumers can expect to spend a whopping $1.70 per fruit, on average.² The fruit's rising popularity on dinner tables and restaurant menus alike offers some explanation, but there's more to the story than a preponderance of avocado rolls and chip dip.

To understand how this seemingly innocent toast topping could command such high prices and create such controversy, we need to look at the global supply chain.

Where Do Avocados Come From?

As much as 80 percent of the avocados consumed in the United States are imported.

Though worldwide desire for the creamy green fruit has skyrocketed, the amount of land where avocados can grow remains limited, often causing supply to fall short of demand. Although California growers supplied 265 million pounds of avocadoes in 2021, this is only a fraction of the amount consumed worldwide.³ In the U.S., we're eating so many avocados that the majority of the fruits we buy have been imported from South America.

One-third of the world's avocados are grown in Mexico,⁴ and as much as 80 percent of the avocados consumed in the United States are imported from south of the border.⁵ Mexico's avocado boom began in the late 1990s when NAFTA eased trade restrictions on the fruit. Avocados began pouring across the border, and Americans fell in love.

Today, 72 percent of Mexico's avocado plantations are located in the Mexican state of Michoacán, and the vast majority of the avocados grown there are destined for the United States.⁶ Avocado farming has become such a lucrative venture that, in many parts of the state, the avocado industry has become intermingled with the drug trade.⁷

Drug lords are widely known to use avocado plantations to launder their money, and plantations not run by cartels are often extorted for "protection money." Farmers who refuse to pay find themselves in danger as cartels threaten growers and their families with violence. Packing plant officials, growers, laborers, and delivery truck drivers have been threatened, robbed, and even kidnapped and forced to work at gunpoint as gang members snatch up all the avocados they can get their hands on.⁸

Because the industry has become so valuable to cartels, they haven't stopped there; in February 2022, the U.S. Department of Agriculture suspended avocado imports after an official carrying out inspections in Michoacán was threatened.⁹

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Avocados Leave Growers Thirsty for More

Deadly skirmishes over the so-called "green gold" aren't the only way the booming avocado industry has affected people's lives in countries where the popular fruit is grown. In addition to high transportation costs, avocados require very specific conditions to grow. There are few places in the world where avocado trees can thrive, so unpredictable weather and limited natural resources can quickly shrink a farmer's crops.

Recurring avocado shortages have highlighted another variable that increases the cost and threatens the health of our avocado supply: drought.¹¹ Some shortages are caused by the chronic dry conditions that plague California, where most domestic avocados are grown. Drought conditions in this state affected the avocado crop in 2021, as well, ³ meaning the California crop couldn't absorb some of the burden of the shortage from Mexico as it could in years with normal rainfall.

Avocados are one crop particularly impacted by water scarcity, requiring an average of 100 gallons of water per pound to produce.¹² Compare that to other favorite taco trimmings: tomatoes require 26 gallons per pound, and lettuce requires 28 gallons per pound to grow.¹³ Coupled with the fact this fruit grows best in hot climates with lots of direct sunlight, there's a recipe for disaster.

The High Price of Avocado Production

In areas adjacent to South American avocado farms, residents often struggle to get enough water for themselves, their gardens, and their families. Avocado trees are thirsty, and many growers have resorted to digging illegal channels to divert additional water to their farms, taking much more than their fair share of vital resources.¹⁴ To top it off, rising prices have made avocados – a traditional food in Mexico – too expensive for locals to afford for themselves.¹⁵

Nearby, indigenous pine forests are dwindling along with the water supply as farmers slash through natural growth to clear more land for avocado cultivation.¹⁶ This deforestation not only releases carbon monoxide back into the environment, it also destroys the heavy forest cover that absorbs moisture and holds it in the ground after a rainfall. Natural biodiversity is being eliminated along with the pine forests as the natural habitat of many species is razed. In such areas, conditions are ripe for the cycle of excess water usage and yearly droughts to continue.

Guacamole's Carbon Footprint

Avocado's environmental impact isn't limited to the areas it's farmed, as diners all over the country have learned to love the creamy, nutty kick this unique ingredient can add to their favorite recipes. But buying a fresh avocado in February, in Vermont, for example, doesn't just happen.

Storing avocados as they ripen then shipping them all over the country in temperature-controlled containers adds a massive, unseen environmental cost to the fruit in the form of carbon pollution. Avocados are usually shipped on trucks instead of planes, so the carbon cost isn't as high as it could be, but delivering a single avocado to the grocery store can still produce more than 423 grams of carbon dioxide.¹⁷

Sourcing Avocados Responsibly

In response to the heavy environmental and social cost of this coveted ingredient, many chefs and eateries are developing avocado alternatives, even going as far as calling for boycotts on the fruit.¹⁸ According to some experts, though, boycotts may not be the answer.¹⁹ While the avocado industry has developed complex socioeconomic issues in parts of South America, it also sustains the populations in many of those same areas, and entire communities could find themselves adrift and impoverished without the profits provided by avocado sales.

From an environmental perspective, avocados are far from the only produce to be shipped and consumed around the world, and as with other fruits and vegetables, those with concerns about the supply chain can practice sustainable sourcing and moderation.

• Restaurants located in areas far from subtropical climes where "alligator pears" are grown can choose to use less of the foreign fruit on their menus.
• Chefs can feature alternative, avocado-free recipes whenever possible, and use the fruit sparingly when an acceptable substitute can't be found.
• Restaurants can also reduce the carbon footprint of their food by taking steps to ensure they're purchasing avocados from the closest possible source.
• Shoppers and retailers alike can use their dollars to buy certified organic, sustainable, conflict-free avocados to help support farmers who engage in ethical, sustainable growing practices.

Avocado Shortages & the Restaurant Industry

In 1999, Americans ate a mere 1.1 pounds of avocado per capita,²⁰ but in 2021, each of us ate about 9 pounds on average.²¹ Recurring shortages mean that restaurants may struggle to satisfy their customers' avocado cravings, though foodservice outlets continue to do their best to cope with the sudden spike in prices.

However, the unexpected suspension on imported avocados may up the cost even more. Most operators are absorbing the extra cost as long as they can to prevent having to raise their prices or change their menus, but some are seeking an alternative to avocado instead. It's difficult to exactly replicate the unique texture and flavor of this versatile fruit but an avocado replacement can be found for many popular recipes, such as avocado toast and guacamole.

Some chefs swear by blended green peas or fava beans,¹⁸ while others have turned to cooked, mashed calabacitas²² and experimented with edamame, broccoli, or asparagus.²³. Many recipes call for a mixture of two or more of these ingredients, while others rely on seasonings and chopped fresh garnishes such as onion and cilantro to complete the flavor profile.

Another option is simply swapping the chunky green dip for another classic, such as pesto or hummus. No matter which you choose, finding an alternative to avocado could add stability to your menu and lower your operating costs.

References

1. A Shortage of Avocados Is Causing Prices to Skyrocket. Eat This, Not That!. Accessed February 2022.
2. Average Monthly Sales Price of Avocados in the United States From July 2020 to December 2020. Statista. Accessed February 2022.
3. Avocado Farmers Have Lighter Crop Amid Drought. AgAlert. Accessed February 2022.
4. Avocado Annual Report MX2021-0060. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Accessed February 2022.
5. US Suspends Avocado Imports From Mexico. Modern Farmer. Accessed February 2022.
6. U.S. and Mexican avocado production is concentrated in a small number of States. USDA Economic Research Service. Accessed September 2023.
7. Drug Cartels Are Trying to Get Into Mexico's Avocado Business. Vice. Accessed February 2022.
8. Inside the Bloody Cartel War for Mexico's Multibillion-dollar Avocado Industry. Los Angeles Times. Accessed February 2022.
9. U.S. Suspends Mexican Avocado Imports After Threat to Inspector. NBC News. Accessed February 2022.
10. U.S. Avocado Demand is Climbing Steadily. USDA Economic Research Service. Accessed February 2022.
11. A 'Megadrought' in California is Expected to Lead to Water Shortages. Insider. Accessed February 2022.
12. Why Avocados Are so Expensive. Insider. Accessed February 2022.
13. This Is How Much Water It Takes to Make Your Favorite Foods. Huffpost. Accessed February 2022.
14. Your Bottomless Hunger for Avocados Is Causing Droughts in Chile. Vice. Accessed February 2022.
15. Who's Really Paying for Your Avocado?. Asparagus Magazine. Accessed February 2022.
16. Mexican Town Protects Forest From Avocado Growers, Cartels. AP News. Accessed February 2022.
17. Is It Time to Rethink Our Avocado Obsession?. Brightly. Accessed February 2022.
18. End of the Avocado: Why Chefs Are Ditching the Unsustainable Fruit. The Guardian. Accessed February 2022.
19. Boycotting Mexican Avocados Is Not the Best Way to Fight Cartels. The Guardian. Accessed February 2022.
20. Is There Such a Thing as Too Much Avocado?. The Cut. Accessed February 2022.
21. Avocado Consumption to Continue Setting Records: US Market Update 2021/22. RaboResearch. Accessed February 2022.
22. Fake Guacamole Is Here. L.A. Taco. Accessed February 2022.
23. 4 Ways to Make Guacamole Without Avocados. Prevention. Accessed February 2022.