Our 2021 Predictions for Foodservice

If you review predictions made in late 2019 for the year ahead in foodservice, it becomes immediately apparent that no one saw 2020 coming. The boom in takeout and delivery, the dearth of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, and the fact we'd all be wearing masks everywhere we go; none of it was on anyone's radar 365 or so days ago.

Given that, it may seem a fool's errand to try to predict a slate of foodservice trends for 2021. Still, using information gathered from our position in the industry and pairing it with data from multiple sources, we think these are the common themes we'll see this year. Barring the unexpected things that are guaranteed to pop up, of course.

10 Foodservice Trends to Watch for Next Year

Movement toward "normal" and a slow recovery.

With the first doses of vaccines being administered now, there's reason to think we might start a slow move back to something like the old normal early in the year.¹ That's not to say things will instantly snap back, with experts predicting an "epidemiological end to the pandemic" in the third or fourth quarter of 2021.²

What does that mean for foodservice? It suggests business will still be slow early in 2021, but will slowly increase as more people get the vaccine and others feel confident enough to venture out again. Financial and investing giant Morgan Stanley predicts the U.S. GDP will grow by almost 6 percent in 2021, after contracting 3.5 percent in 2020, with a four-firm consensus of a more-modest 3.8 percent growth.³ As those who lost jobs during this year's economic contraction find work again and others feel more confident in the future, that should mean more spending at restaurants.

Holding out for bailouts in the meantime may be a gamble.

The deadlock in Washington over an additional round of stimulus may continue into the new year.⁴ Regardless, the package being discussed now is scaled down from one passed by the U.S. House in spring and the final product may have far less support for businesses than many might have hoped.⁵ Additionally, it looks like the next round of stimulus won't include checks for individuals, which means no infusion of cash for Americans to pass on to businesses.⁶

A report from the National Restaurant Association estimates 110,000 restaurants in the United States closed permanently since the start of the pandemic.⁷ Many more may follow with no help from a new stimulus package and operational restrictions that last through winter and spring, as health experts say they should.

Takeout and delivery will remain significant.

These two off-premise dining (and drinking, now) options boomed throughout the pandemic as people heeded directives to avoid public spaces.⁸ That made ghost kitchens and other solutions for cranking out those orders essential. Unfortunately, the benefits of all that off-site ordering weren't attainable for some operations, given the high cost of entry to that market, and just weren't a viable option for others.

These two methods of service are practically guaranteed to remain a big part of business for their respective operations in the coming quarters as lockdowns and other safety measures continue. While the experts agree people will relish once again being able to gather safely with others in restaurants when that opportunity arrives, the insiders we talk to expect off-premise orders to continue. The volume is unlikely to approach what we see now, but promotions to get people to try delivery services and a new familiarity with the conveniences of ordering for remote consumption will likely leave lasting impacts.

Many operators will reopen by summer, most by end of the season.

The summer season so crucial to many in hospitality will provide an attractive reopening target for businesses across the country shuttered or hamstrung by restrictions in the winter and spring. If the results of the state-by-state vaccination effort are more successful than expected, the mark will likely be an easy one to make. However, if they pace with predictions or even are unexpectedly slowed, areas across the country may still be in shutdown mode or under regulations limiting capacity.

The optimistic timeline of a summer reopening has an important subscriber in vaccine researcher Moncef Slaoui, chief science advisor to the government's Operation Warp Speed vaccine fast-track program. He expects the U.S. to return to "substantially normal" by summer.⁹ In late November, he said experts with the national effort hope to reach 70 to 80 percent vaccination, in the range of herd immunity, "by May or June of 2021." That would open the door to summer vacations and other out-of-the-house activities.

Returning diners will expect to find the same menus they left.

This one is more of a hunch on our part, but we expect diners will want things to feel normal when we get back to "normal." That will mean handing them menus that match what they remember at their favorite spots. This will be a time for comfort food, which could just mean the same dishes you've always served, as we all recover from this global nightmare.

Does that mean we think you shouldn't offer those dishes you dreamed up during the pandemic? Absolutely not: We're just saying make sure you have the classics for those who just want to feel normal again. That leads us to No. 6 on our list of 2021 predictions for foodservice trends.

Try new things in daily specials.

The above being assumed; we also expect there to be a significant number of people who want to be reminded why they love going out to eat beyond just not having to do the dishes. They'll want to revel in posting their plates to social platforms again and rediscover why they're willing to put in the money and effort of putting on real clothes for a restaurant visit. For them, it's time to innovate, experiment, and embrace some food trends. On that note, here are a few things we expect to pop on that front:

• Spicy foods are a perennial favorite and recent years have seen both operators and consumers pushing the boundaries of max heat. We expect diners to seek more than the outrageous Scoville busters, with intentions on finding perfect pairings of spice and flavor.
• Spiked kombucha isn't a phrase we ever imagined writing just a few years ago, but credit the booming sales of hard seltzer for making us believe in the alcoholic kombucha predictions.¹⁰
• Upcycling is the term assigned to the use of ingredients that might be wasted otherwise, such as "ugly produce," vegetable peels, and fruit pulps. Using them not only gives you the ingredients you need; it also exhibits to customers that you're operating a responsible, environmentally conscious business.
• Plant proteins have been the buzz in commercial foodservice for years and consumers' interest in them shows no abating. While it remains enough to just offer this novel foodstuff, we expect to see plant-based "meats" used in every possible way as the technology and methods for creating it continue to advance.

Customers will want to know your continuing efforts to keep them safe.

From the early days of the pandemic, experts recommended letting customers know what you're doing to keep them safe.¹¹ Doing so shows you care about those who visit your establishment and, obviously, keep them safer while they visit.¹²

How you spread the word will depend on how you most effectively reach your customers. Handouts that can be made available to passersby and diners are a great start, along with door or window signage that explains what you're doing. Social channels, including Facebook and Google My Business, and your own website, if you have one, are also great ways to spread the word and enable people to come prepared.

PPE and sanitizer will remain in high demand.

As part of those ongoing efforts to protect customers and staff members, many operators will be in the market for protective equipment and cleaners on a regular basis. The market remains in short supply for some of those materials following a buying spree in early 2020 as the virus began to spread across the United States, with backorders extending well into 2021 on some of those supplies established then. Given those realities and the expectation we'll all still need to take protection precautions for the first half of 2021 or so, it's likely there will be high demand for the available products.

Supply issues will continue for other items, too.

The global pandemic took a major toll on several parts of the supply chain foodservice operators rely on, from meat processing and packing plants to equipment manufacturers.¹³ Foreign and domestic factories were shuttered, and shipping was paused as a result of both precautions and outbreaks, which led to a supply drought for everything from ranges to forks. We've talked to experts in our industry who expect those to continue intermittently as countries battle surges.

Additionally, ocean freight rates are at historic levels, which means manufacturers who build in or get raw materials from other countries are paying a lot to bring those items in.¹⁴ Numerous manufacturers plan January 1 price increases, many of which relate to those and other cost hikes, and others may follow suit in the months to come. That means late 2020 may provide the best pricing we'll see for much in the restaurant equipment and supplies categories, with early 2021 potentially also better than later in the year.

eCommerce sales of restaurant equipment and supplies will continue to grow.

Let's say the obvious first: KaTom is a major player in online sales of these products, but this is based on wider patterns than what our own ledgers show. Tech Crunch cites an IBM report in asserting the pandemic sped the move to ecommerce by consumers by five years, and there's no expectation that will be reversed when the crisis ebbs.¹⁵ Dealers across our industry report a similar shift in the sale of restaurant equipment.

While Americans have largely taken to online shopping, the foodservice equipment industry lagged the curve.¹⁶ That may well be because people were nervous about purchasing large, expensive pieces online, but they seem to be moving past that right now.

References

1. Pfizer's Vaccine Offers Strong Protection After First Dose . The New York Times. Accessed July 2022.
2. When will the Covid-19 pandemic end?. McKinsey & Company. Accessed July 2022.
3. 2021 Global Economic Outlook: The Nest Phase of the V. Morgan Stanley. Accessed July 2022.
4. It's over: $2,000 second stimulus check won't replace $600 payment. What Next?. CNET. Accessed July 2022.
5. H.R.6800 -The Heroes Act. Congress.Gov. Accessed July 2022.
6. Hopes dimming for another round of stimulus checks in 2020. CBS News. Accessed July 2022.
7. 10,000 of America's restaurants have closed in the past three months. CNN Business. Accessed July 2022.
8. Restaurants Create Digital Kitchens to Keep Pace with Off-Premise Orders. Restaurant Business. Accessed July 2022.
9. 'We should be substantially back to normal' by summer 2021, says Operation Warp Speed's chief science advisor. CNBC. Accessed July 2022.
10. Is Spiked Kombucha the New Hard Seltzer?. Fortune. Accessed July 2022.
11. 5 Ways to Retain Your Customers During the Coronavirus Outbreak. U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Accessed July 2022.
12. 10 Things Every Small-Business Owner Needs to Do to Deal With the Impact of Covid-19 on Their Business. Inc.. Accessed July 2022.
13. Update: COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities – United States, April – May 2020. CDC. Accessed July 2022.
14. Shippers' ocean freight 'about to explode' as rates hit new highs. The Load Star. Accessed July 2022.
15. COVID-19 pandemic accelerated shift to e-commerce by 5 years, new report says. Tech Crunch. Accessed July 2022.
16. Number of digital shoppers in the United States from 2016 to 2021. Statista. Accessed July 2022.